Wednesday, 31 August 2011

Swedish Krona Falls on Growth & Interest Rates Outlook

The Swedish krona fell today in front of all his comrades negotiated the government cut its growth forecast for the economy, spurring speculation the central bank will not be able to increase lending rates.

Sweden cut its forecast for growth this year of 4.6 percent to 4.1 percent. The forecast for next year fell 3.8 percent to 1.3 percent. The Riksbank will announce its decision on interest rates after the meeting on 7 September.

The OMX Stockholm 30 Index, the nation's index of key shares, fell 0.4 percent. The index has fallen 13 percent this month. Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief currency analyst at Danske Bank A / S, said the pension fund can sell the crown after the decline of populations, so an "excellent buying opportunity."

USD/SEK climbed from 6.2926 to 6.3524 as of 21:57 GMT today. The currency pair reached the high of 6.3883 during the trading session.
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USD Gains vs. EUR & CHF, Falls vs. JPY

The U.S. dollar managed to gain against the euro and Swiss franc today, but fell against the Japanese yen as traders left the bases mixed doubt about the prospects for the U.S. currency.

The Standard & Poors Case-Shiller index of home prices fell 4.5 percent in June from a year-over-year basis. That's a better result than the 4.7 percent decline forecast and falling 4.6 percent in May. On the other hand, consumer confidence Conference Board was far worse than forecast, from 59.2 in July to 44.5 in August, while analysts expect the index to be removed only to 52.1.

Reports of tomorrow are not good for the dollar is. The ADP employment report is expected to show slower growth of Americans employed by 102,000, compared with growth in July by 114,000. Economists say that the Chicago PMI showed a fall to 54.3 in August from 58.8 in July.

EUR/USD went down from 1.4510 to 1.4444 as of 21:05 GMT today, while intraday it touched the low of 1.4382. USD/JPY dropped from 76.84 to 76.73, while USD/CHF advanced from 0.8156 to 0.8201.
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Building Permits in Australia & New Zealand Rise, Aussie & Kiwi Gain

The currencies of Australia and New Zealand increased today, before falling later, after reports showed that the number of building permits in these countries increased in July.

New Zealand accepts construction rose 6.3 percent in July, after falling 4.3 percent in June. Australia accepts construction rose 1.0 percent in July, seasonally adjusted monthly after falling 3.6 percent in June. Currently, the kiwi tends to decrease, while Australia lost all its gains.

NZD/USD rose from 0.8459 to 0.8486 as of 12:57 GMT today and earlier it touched the intraday high of 0.8535 — the highest level since August 4. AUD/USD traded at 1.0644 today, while earlier it climbed from 1.0656 to 1.0684.
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Forecast: Fundamentals Aren’t Favorable for Pound

Great Britain pound fell during the previous week, but rose earlier this week. Could it be a sign that the pound will reverse its downtrend? Currently available data indicate that this case is unlikely.

Previously, the proceeds from the book were mainly by investors fleeing the euro and the problems of the European Union to the UK currency is perceived as more secure. However, the macroeconomic data continuously demonstrates that the British economy has its own problems and not much better than the economies of continental Europe.

The growth of the UK economy slowed to 0.2 percent in the second quarter versus the first quarter, while growth in the first quarter of the last three months was 0.5 percent. The figures were even worse in the year-over-year basis and the expansion in the second quarter was 0.7 percent, while increasing in the first quarter was 1.6 percent.

This week is not great for the pound either. GFK Consumer Confidence Index is expected to go down slightly from -30 to -32. Views on the housing sector are mixed. While the index Halifax house prices are expected to show a monthly increase of 0.5 percent in August, compared with 0.3 percent in July, analysts predict HPI National show a slower growth of 0.1 percent this month, down from 0.2 percent in the previous month.

All in all, this week doesn’t look very favorable for the UK currency. In case of a rally, GBP/USD would find strong resistance at 1.6550 level. That was the level of resistance in May and more recently in July. The currency can find support at 1.6250 –1.6300 level as it provided strong support in the second part of July and was the recent base for the current rally. Below that the area somewhat above 1.6100 as that was the floor for the currency, when it has broke to the downside at the beginning of August.
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