The South African rand fell today as the uncertainty of the forex traders on the global economy's ability to maintain demand for reducing the growth of safer currencies. Currently, however, the rand recovered.
Market participants were less inclined to believe the global economic recovery after the report from Automatic Data Processing showed on August 31 that U.S. employers added 91,000 jobs last month, less than expected reading of 102,000. Market sentiment improved slightly after the report showed yesterday that the number of jobless claims fell from 421,000 to 409,000 last week. Today we will see non-farm payrolls that must have a major impact on markets.
USD/ZAR traded near 6.9950 today as of 12:31 GMT, while previously it surged from 6.9870 to 7.0230.
The Swedish krona fell in the report showed that manufacturing contracted in Sweden last month, reinforcing the view that the central bank could cut interest rates.
The manufacturing index fell to 48.7 from 50.1 in August Swedbank in July, while the average forecast was 49.8. A reading below 50.0 indicates decreased. That was the first decline in two years.
The adverse report agree that the Swedish economy is too week to support the current level of borrowing costs, let alone to survive further adjustment. According to Credit Suisse rates the central bank cut interest rates in the next 12 months.
USD/SEK jumped from 6.3377 to 6.4127. The currency pair has recovered somewhat today, trading at about 6.3936 as of 1:45 GMT.
The U.S. dollar advanced today as the unexpected growth in the U.S. manufacturing spurred speculation the Federal Reserve will not need to stimulate the economy by debasing the U.S. currency.
The Institute for Purchasing Managers Index Supply Management "was at 56.6 in August, with little change in the July figure of 56.9. The index is expected to fall to 48.7. A reading below 50, 0 indicates deterioration and above this value indicates expansion. Positive data suggest that perhaps the U.S. economy is in a state not bad enough to justify a new round of quantitative easing.
Unemployment claims fell from 421,000 to 409,000 last week, reducing concerns about the use to some degree. Another important reason for the concerns of the Fed, the housing market, made worse because the construction cost has not increased by 0.2 percent, as promised by the forecasts, but fell by 1.3 percent.
EUR/USD opened at 1.4374 and dropped to 1.4226 before trading near 1.4259 as of 22:57 GMT today. GBP/USD fell from 1.6249 to 1.6183, while reached the intraday low of 1.6130 earlier. USD/JPY advanced from 76.64 to 76.86 and earlier touched the high of 77.24.
The Australian dollar advanced today against the euro and Japanese yen after the report showed that retail sales in July rose more than expected.
Australia retail sales rose 0.5 percent in July, while growth was 0.3 percent forecast. Retail sales fell 0.1 percent in June. MSCI Asia Pacific index gained 0.7 percent and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced 0.5 percent.
EUR/AUD slipped from 1.3427 to 1.3349, while AUD/JPY climbed from 82.04 to 82.37 today as of 10:54 GMT.
The Swiss franc gained for a second day today, yesterday broke his three-day drop against the U.S. dollar and the euro, as the Swiss National Bank has announced new measures to curb the strength of the franc.
Previously, the Swiss currency was swept by speculation that the central bank parity of the franc to the euro's performance. Market participants expect the SNB would release some information about euro-or, perhaps, other measures to drain the strength of the Swiss currency. No one, traders spurred speculation that the Bank is satisfied with the current rate of the franc in relation to the euro.
USD/CHF fell from 0.8059 to 0.8001 and EUR/CHF dropped from 1.1585 to 1.1427 as of 10:38 GMT today.
The Swedish krona fell today in front of all his comrades negotiated the government cut its growth forecast for the economy, spurring speculation the central bank will not be able to increase lending rates.
Sweden cut its forecast for growth this year of 4.6 percent to 4.1 percent. The forecast for next year fell 3.8 percent to 1.3 percent. The Riksbank will announce its decision on interest rates after the meeting on 7 September.
The OMX Stockholm 30 Index, the nation's index of key shares, fell 0.4 percent. The index has fallen 13 percent this month. Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief currency analyst at Danske Bank A / S, said the pension fund can sell the crown after the decline of populations, so an "excellent buying opportunity."
USD/SEK climbed from 6.2926 to 6.3524 as of 21:57 GMT today. The currency pair reached the high of 6.3883 during the trading session.
The U.S. dollar managed to gain against the euro and Swiss franc today, but fell against the Japanese yen as traders left the bases mixed doubt about the prospects for the U.S. currency.
The Standard & Poors Case-Shiller index of home prices fell 4.5 percent in June from a year-over-year basis. That's a better result than the 4.7 percent decline forecast and falling 4.6 percent in May. On the other hand, consumer confidence Conference Board was far worse than forecast, from 59.2 in July to 44.5 in August, while analysts expect the index to be removed only to 52.1.
Reports of tomorrow are not good for the dollar is. The ADP employment report is expected to show slower growth of Americans employed by 102,000, compared with growth in July by 114,000. Economists say that the Chicago PMI showed a fall to 54.3 in August from 58.8 in July.
EUR/USD went down from 1.4510 to 1.4444 as of 21:05 GMT today, while intraday it touched the low of 1.4382. USD/JPY dropped from 76.84 to 76.73, while USD/CHF advanced from 0.8156 to 0.8201.
The currencies of Australia and New Zealand increased today, before falling later, after reports showed that the number of building permits in these countries increased in July.
New Zealand accepts construction rose 6.3 percent in July, after falling 4.3 percent in June. Australia accepts construction rose 1.0 percent in July, seasonally adjusted monthly after falling 3.6 percent in June. Currently, the kiwi tends to decrease, while Australia lost all its gains.
NZD/USD rose from 0.8459 to 0.8486 as of 12:57 GMT today and earlier it touched the intraday high of 0.8535 — the highest level since August 4. AUD/USD traded at 1.0644 today, while earlier it climbed from 1.0656 to 1.0684.
Previously, the proceeds from the book were mainly by investors fleeing the euro and the problems of the European Union to the UK currency is perceived as more secure. However, the macroeconomic data continuously demonstrates that the British economy has its own problems and not much better than the economies of continental Europe.
The growth of the UK economy slowed to 0.2 percent in the second quarter versus the first quarter, while growth in the first quarter of the last three months was 0.5 percent. The figures were even worse in the year-over-year basis and the expansion in the second quarter was 0.7 percent, while increasing in the first quarter was 1.6 percent.
This week is not great for the pound either. GFK Consumer Confidence Index is expected to go down slightly from -30 to -32. Views on the housing sector are mixed. While the index Halifax house prices are expected to show a monthly increase of 0.5 percent in August, compared with 0.3 percent in July, analysts predict HPI National show a slower growth of 0.1 percent this month, down from 0.2 percent in the previous month.
All in all, this week doesn’t look very favorable for the UK currency. In case of a rally, GBP/USD would find strong resistance at 1.6550 level. That was the level of resistance in May and more recently in July. The currency can find support at 1.6250 –1.6300 level as it provided strong support in the second part of July and was the recent base for the current rally. Below that the area somewhat above 1.6100 as that was the floor for the currency, when it has broke to the downside at the beginning of August.
