Tuesday, 22 November 2011

Aussie Retreats as Risk Aversion Sets In


Aussie is retreating once showing some signs of gains earlier. Now, though, Aussie is heading lower as risk aversion sets in. issues regarding sovereign debt in Europe, and therefore the budget issues plaguing the US, are weighing on riskier currencies nowadays.


Earlier, as US stocks pared gains and headed higher, the Australian dollar showed signs of gains, supported, in part, by recovering gold prices. Now, although gold prices have reached $1,700 an oz. once more, the Aussie is in retreat as sentiment turns negative. US GDP growth for quarter three wasn’t nearly as good as hoped, being lowered to 2 % from 2.5%.


Additionally, the debt woes facing countries in Europe, and facing the US, are no closer to being solved. European politicians seem to move at a glacial pace, unable to agree, and therefore the US is in much a similar position. A recent supercommittee designed to seek out a solution to the budget problems in the US has failed.


So, for now, sentiment is turning, once again, toward the chance averse. Aussie has given up its gains and is now lower against the US dollar — although it is higher against some currencies. till some solid progress is made in terms of budgets around the world, the Australian dollar is likely to founder.


At 15:08 GMT AUD/USD is lower, down to 0.9857 from the open at 0.9864. EUR/AUD is higher, up to 1.3712 from the open at 1.3675. GBP/AUD is lower at 1.5849, down from the open at 1.5858.
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Euro Higher for Now, But Debt Remains a Problem


Euro is higher straight away, gaining as some Forex traders engage in brief covering. However, the 17-nation currency continues to be at risk of debt issues — in the eurozone and in the US.


For now, euro is obtaining to a small degree of a lift when some choppy trading yesterday, and a flight to safety for markets. Middle East demand has helped support the euro up till now in today’s Forex trading, but that might easily fade. Indeed, several expect that because the US session approaches, the euro can realize it more durable and more durable to hold on to gains.


The biggest issue, jointly may expect, is sovereign debt. Eurozone debt remains out of control, and there is no sensible attempt to solve the debt crisis. On prime of that, budget issues in the US have several worried about what’s next for the world’s largest economy. All of this uncertainty means that the short covering that's helping the euro is unlikely to last as Forex traders explore for shelter soon. With politicians in Europe and the US refusing to induce serious about debt issues, it'll be awhile before Forex traders feel extremely safe.


At 14:07 local time, EUR/USD is up slightly from the open at 1.3490, moving to 1.3503. EUR/GBP is higher, up to 0.8653, up from the open at 0.8624. EUR/JPY is also higher, moving up to 104.0900, from the open at 103.7095.
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SA Rand Rebounds on Outlook for Interest Rates

The South African rand rebounded these days after yesterday’s decline on the speculation the central bank will keep its interest rates unchanged, continuing to draw foreign investors.


South Africa’s interest rates are important for the rand as the differential between the South African rates and also the borrowing prices within the developed markets attract investors interested in carry trades. the most interest rate of South Africa is at 5.5 percent, compared to zero.25 p.c within the USA, 1.25 p.c within the European Union and zero.1 p.c in Japan. The South African Reserve Bank left the benchmark repo rate unchanged on November 10 for the sixth consecutive month. Analysts consider chance on an interest rate cut as low.


Economists expect that the govt report will show tomorrow that the buyer value inflation rose to 5.9 p.c in October from 5.7 p.c in September. The weakening rand contributed to the price growth. As long as the upward pressure on inflation remains, the central bank isn’t likely to reduce its lending rates and South Africa will continue to be engaging to hold traders.


USD/ZAR fell from 8.3150 to 8.2430 today before trading at 8.3030 as of 11:24 GMT. Yesterday, the currency pair rose from 8.1740 to 8.3140.
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Global Economy Unfavorable for Riskier Currencies, Brazilian Real Drops


The Brazilian real ticked down because the developments within the international economy created investors favor safer assets over riskier ones.


The US politician weren’t been ready to agree on budget cuts. Germany’s Finance Ministry admitted that the nation’s economic growth was “noticeably slower”. All in all, it remains terribly arduous to convince investors to shop for riskier currencies, even with guarantees of upper yield.


Unfortunately for Brazil and its currency, the foreign issues have impact on the country’s economy. Analysts slash their forecasts for the Brazilian economic growth. There’s the speculation that Brazil’s government could cut its estimate for growth to three.5 % when it reduced the outlook to three.8 % on November eighteen.


USD/BRL was up today from 1.8077 to 1.8084 as of 8:30 GMT after falling to the intraday low of 1.8035.
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Monday, 21 November 2011

Yen Profits from Debt Problems of Europe & USA


The Japanese yen rose against the euro and fluctuated versus the dollar as considerations about the US debt added to uncertainty caused by the ecu crisis.


Rumors say the US Congress may announce that its members failed to reach agreement about spending cuts required to reduce the budget deficit. Spain was one more European country to lose government as the ruling Socialist Party lost election on the weekend. the quality & Poor’s five hundred Index fell one.5 percent, whereas the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped two.1 percent, declining for the third day.


USD/JPY traded near its opening rate of 76.85 as of 12:31 GMT today after rising to the high of 76.94 and falling to the low of 76.75. EUR/JPY was down from 103.84 to 103.38.
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Pound Slumps as House Prices Decline


The Great Britain pound dropped nowadays and dropped heavily as the house prices in Britain tumbled, reinforcing the negative outlook for the united kingdom economy.


Rightmove reported that the House worth Index was down by three.1 % in November from October, following the increase by a pair of.8 % in October from the preceding month. That was the largest drop since November 2010. The drop of the prices was attributed to the negative impact of the european crisis on the arrogance of shoppers and businessmen.


GBP/USD sank from 1.5794 to 1.5642 and GBP/JPY slid from 121.36 to 120.18 as of 13:49 GMT today.
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Monday, 19 September 2011

Online Forex Trading is Booming Business

Forex online is more fashionable now to a large extent all have access to a computer and the Internet. Unlike thestock market, the Forex does not have a special place for trade to take place. While trade takes place around the world, online Forex trading makes this process more convenient than ever.
Transactions on the Forex are traded very rapidly. The Forex is open twenty four hours a day on each working day of the year. Startseach morning trade in Sydney, Australia, and when the business day begins in each country, the online Forex trading begins worldwide. In online forex trading allows banks, monetary institutions, brokers and speculators on the currency exchange quickly and easily. Online Forex is also a trendy way to change foreign currency, as happens in real time without delay.
As the online Forex trading makes exchanging foreign currency without any problems and live to millions of people, many are asking for trained pros and cons of currency. Brokers and financial institutions can offer advice on investing in the Forex. The brokers also real negotiations will be resolved to the consumer. However, many are willing to teach in the Forex trade for themselves.
While learning about online Forex trading, it is imperative to understand all there is to know about the currency. Many online sites offer tutorials and demonstrations of the potential operators on how to get started in online Forex trading. The practice of speculators demos helps understand the basics of Forex trading online. Moreover, an additional tip to the negotiation of Forex online learning is the study of the news, international news and have news regarding politics, economics and finance. Inflation, changes in government and taxes just to identify a few, influence the Forex every day. It is crucial to understand how these changes affect trade and the value of the currency.
A forex trader must be organized and needs the necessary tools in their
set of tools to succeed. These tools are:
1) A reliable internet connection - do not want to be blocked for a crucial operation because an Internet connection fails
2) A reliable computer - the machine has to perform and not "frozen". You need the right hardware to run any Forex charting software or signal
you may way to run.
3) A treatment station - this software serves as an interface between you and your agent and allows you to perform with a few clicks of your
mouse.
4) real-time exchange rates - rates update thousands of times a day, you should have the appointment minutes
5) Executable Quotations - The comments that you can click and then execute the trade immediately
While some people see the Forex market as a place to see what their exchange rate will be when traveling abroad, others view it as an opportunity to make big profits in their financial planning and the future.
By learning how to make money with Forex, you can gain great benefit by itself in terms of time and money. It is my hope that you take the time to learn more about Forex, and begin this fascinating adventure of capitalism today. You will not be disappointed, and even you will realize that there are many robots and technical programs to help them thrive.
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Monday, 12 September 2011

Worst Week for Sterling in Nine Months

Great Britain book published this week the biggest weekly fall against the U.S. dollar nine months of speculation that the fragile UK economy will force the central bank to keep interest rates at historic low.

Virtually all the key data this week was negative for the pound. Whether house prices, industrial production or the producer price index, all the signal indicators on the worsening state of the British economy. Not surprisingly, the Bank of England kept its policy very stimulating, but also reinforces the pessimistic view on the future of the UK economy and currency.

The pound was in decline against the dollar and the yen for almost a week and will publish the third consecutive weekly decline. The currency also weakened against the euro in the first half of the week, but strongly advanced in the second half as concern for the problems of the European Union intensified.



GBP/USD dropped from 1.6150 to 1.5878 over the week. GBP/JPY slipped from 124.20 to close at 123.20. EUR/GBP fell from 0.8765 to 0.8598, the lowest level since March, after it rose to 0.8842 earlier this week.
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Franc Considered Overvalued Even Pegged to Euro

The Swiss franc fell against other major currencies today as the Finance Minister Johann Schneider-Ammann said the currency is "vastly overrated" even after the central bank set the franc to the euro. The franc rose against the euro today.

The minister explained that he believes that the fair rate for the franc is the following:

There is a general understanding that the purchasing power parity is around 1.35 to 1.40 francs per euro. That's more or less accepted. 

According to the index of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Swiss currency is still 35 percent above the right price against the euro.

The euro fell today on concerns about the debt crisis in the region, but the parity of the franc to the euro has not allowed the Swiss franc to benefit from the resulting demand for shelter. However, the Swiss currency rose against the euro, reaching the limits set by the Swiss National Bank.



USD/CHF closed today at 0.8835 after opening at 0.8754 and falling to 0.8706. CHF/JPY fell from 88.49 to 87.75. EUR/CHF closed at 1.2065, declining from the opening rate of 1.2151.
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Canadian Dollar Falls with Employment


The Canadian dollar for a second day today against its U.S. counterpart and the Japanese yen, towards parity with the dollar after the report showed that employment in Canada fell and unemployment rate unexpectedly rose last month. The currency managed to gain against the euro.

Statistics Canada reported today that the number of employed persons decreased in 5500 in August after increasing in July 7100. The most optimistic forecasts are thus promising an increase of 24,200. Increase the unemployment rate by 0.1 percent to 7.3 percent.

The Standard & Poor's 500 fell to 3 percent, while S & P / TSX Composite Index fell 2.2 Canadian cent.

The mood was depressed markets as talks abound that Greece may leave the eurozone. The negative sentiment pushed the loonie (the Canadian currency's nickname) down against the U.S. dollar. UU. and the yen, but were allowed to exceed the euro.

USD/CAD jumped from 0.9893 to 0.9967 as of 20:41 GMT today. CAD/JPY fell from 78.28 to 77.75 after touching the intraday low of 77.31. EUR/CAD fell from 1.3732 to 1.3606.
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BoE Keeps Main Interest Rate Unchanged, GBP/USD Fluctuates

The British pound against the dollar fluctuated today after the Bank of England kept its main interest rates unchanged yesterday and today's report showed that producer prices fell last month. The pound rose against the yen.

The Bank of England left the official Bank rate at 0.5 percent and purchases of assets by £ 200 billion yesterday. The minutes of the monetary policy meeting is scheduled to be released on September 21. The entrance to the Producer Price Index fell 1.9 percent in August from July. The output of the PPI increased at a slower pace in August - up 0.1 percent, compared with growth in July - 0.3 percent.


GBP/USD traded near its opening price of 1.5958 as of 12:06 GMT today, following the drop to 1.5893. GBP/JPY rose from 123.63 to 124.13.
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ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged, Euro Falls

The euro weakened today, falling for a second day against the dollar and the yen after European Central Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged yesterday.

The ECB left its minimum bid target of 1.5 percent. Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said at a press conference after the monetary policy decision:

Looking ahead, we expect the euro zone economy will grow moderately, subject to uncertainty particularly high and the intensification of downside risks. 

Trichet said the euro zone's gross domestic product is expected to grow "very moderately in the second half of this year" and the ECB revised its projections for GDP growth downward.



EUR/USD slipped from 1.3808 to 1.3810 today as of 11:42 GMT after rising to 1.3939 earlier. EUR/JPY went down from 107.58 to 107.43.
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Thursday, 8 September 2011

Determinants of FX rates


The following theories explain the fluctuations in FX rates in a floating exchange rate regime (In a fixed exchange rate regime, FX rates are decided by its government):
(a) International parity conditions: Relative Purchasing Power Parity, interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect. Though to some extent the above theories provide logical explanation for the fluctuations in exchange rates, yet these theories falter as they are based on challengeable assumptions [e.g., free flow of goods, services and capital] which seldom hold true in the real world.
(b) Balance of payments model (see exchange rate): This model, however, focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. It failed to provide any explanation for continuous appreciation of dollar during 1980s and most part of 1990s in face of soaring US current account deficit.
(c) Asset market model (see exchange rate): views currencies as an important asset class for constructing investment portfolios. Assets prices are influenced mostly by people’s willingness to hold the existing quantities of assets, which in turn depends on their expectations on the future worth of these assets. The asset market model of exchange rate determination states that “the exchange rate between two currencies represents the price that just balances the relative supplies of, and demand for, assets denominated in those currencies.”
None of the models developed so far succeed to explain FX rates levels and volatility in the longer time frames. For shorter time frames (less than a few days) algorithm can be devised to predict prices. Large and small institutions and professional individual traders have made consistent profits from it. It is understood from above models that many macroeconomic factors affect the exchange rates and in the end currency prices are a result of dual forces of demand and supply. The world's currency markets can be viewed as a huge melting pot: in a large and ever-changing mix of current events, supply and demand factors are constantly shifting, and the price of one currency in relation to another shifts accordingly. No other market encompasses (and distills) as much of what is going on in the world at any given time as foreign exchange.
Supply and demand for any given currency, and thus its value, are not influenced by any single element, but rather by several. These elements generally fall into three categories: economic factors, political conditions and market psychology.
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Trading characteristics


There is no unified or centrally cleared market for the majority of FX trades, and there is very little cross-border regulation. Due to the over-the-counter (OTC) nature of currency markets, there are rather a number of interconnected marketplaces, where different currencies instruments are traded. This implies that there is not a single exchange rate but rather a number of different rates (prices), depending on what bank or market maker is trading, and where it is. In practice the rates are often very close, otherwise they could be exploited by arbitrageurs instantaneously. Due to London's dominance in the market, a particular currency's quoted price is usually the London market price. A joint venture of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Reuters, called Fxmarketspace opened in 2007 and aspired but failed to the role of a central market clearing mechanism.
The main trading center is London, but New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore are all important centers as well. Banks throughout the world participate. Currency trading happens continuously throughout the day as the Asian trading session ends, the European session begins, followed by the North American session and then back to the Asian session, excluding weekends.
Fluctuations in exchange rates are usually caused by actual monetary flows as well as by expectations of changes in monetary flows caused by changes in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation (purchasing power parity theory), interest rates (interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect), budget and trade deficits or surpluses, large cross-border MA deals and other macroeconomic conditions. Major news is released publicly, often on scheduled dates, so many people have access to the same news at the same time. However, the large banks have an important advantage they can see their customers' order flow.
Currencies are traded against one another. Each currency pair thus constitutes an individual trading product and is traditionally noted XXXYYY or XXX/YYY, where XXX and YYY are the ISO 4217 international three-letter code of the currencies involved. The first currency (XXX) is the base currency that is quoted relative to the second currency (YYY), called the counter currency (or quote currency). For instance, the quotation EURUSD (EUR/USD) 1.5465 is the price of the euro expressed in US dollars, meaning 1 euro = 1.5465 dollars. Historically, the base currency was the stronger currency at the creation of the pair. However, when the euro was created, the European Central Bank mandated that it always be the base currency in any pairing.
The factors affecting XXX will affect both XXXYYY and XXXZZZ. This causes positive currency correlation between XXXYYY and XXXZZZ.
On the spot market, according to the BIS study, the most heavily traded products were:EURUSD: 27%USDJPY: 13%GBPUSD (also called cable): 12%and the US currency was involved in 84.39% of transactions, followed by the euro (39.1%), the yen (19.0%), and sterling (12.9%) (see table). Volume percentages for all individual currencies should add up to 200%, as each transaction involves two currencies.
Trading in the euro has grown considerably since the currency's creation in January 1999, and how long the foreign exchange market will remain dollar-centered is open to debate. Until recently, trading the euro versus a non-European currency ZZZ would have usually involved two trades: EURUSD and USDZZZ. The exception to this is EURJPY, which is an established traded currency pair in the interbank spot market. As the dollar's value has eroded during 2008, interest in using the euro as reference currency for prices in commodities (such as oil), as well as a larger component of foreign reserves by banks, has increased dramatically. Transactions in the currencies of commodity-producing countries, such as AUD, NZD, CAD, have also increased.
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Money transfer/remittance companies

Money transfer companies/remittance companies perform high-volume low-value transfers generally by economic migrants back to their home country. In 2007, the Aite Group estimated that there were $369 billion of remittances (an increase of 8% on the previous year). The four largest markets (India, China, Mexico and the Philippines) receive $95 billion. The largest and best known provider is Western Union with 345,000 agents globally followed by UAE Exchange Financial Services Ltd.
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Non-bank foreign exchange companies

Non-bank foreign exchange companies offer currency exchange and international payments to private individuals and companies. These are also known as foreign exchange brokers but are distinct in that they do not offer speculative trading but currency exchange with payments. I.e., there is usually a physical delivery of currency to a bank account. Send Money Home offers an in-depth comparison into the services offered by all the major non-bank foreign exchange companies.It is estimated that in the UK, 14% of currency transfers/payments are made via Foreign Exchange Companies. These companies' selling point is usually that they will offer better exchange rates or cheaper payments than the customer's bank. These companies differ from Money Transfer/Remittance Companies in that they generally offer higher-value services.
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Retail foreign exchange brokers


Retail traders (individuals) constitute a growing segment of this market, both in size and importance. Currently, they participate indirectly through brokers or banks. Retail brokers, while largely controlled and regulated in the USA by the CFTC and NFA have in the past been subjected to periodic foreign exchange scams. To deal with the issue, the NFA and CFTC began (as of 2009) imposing stricter requirements, particularly in relation to the amount of Net Capitalization required of its members. As a result many of the smaller, and perhaps questionable brokers are now gone.
There are two main types of retail FX brokers offering the opportunity for speculative currency trading: brokers and dealers or market makers. Brokers serve as an agent of the customer in the broader FX market, by seeking the best price in the market for a retail order and dealing on behalf of the retail customer. They charge a commission or mark-up in addition to the price obtained in the market. Dealers or market makers, by contrast, typically act as principal in the transaction versus the retail customer, and quote a price they are willing to deal at—the customer has the choice whether or not to trade at that price.
In assessing the suitability of an FX trading service, the customer should consider the ramifications of whether the service provider is acting as principal or agent. When the service provider acts as agent, the customer is generally assured of a known cost above the best inter-dealer FX rate. When the service provider acts as principal, no commission is paid, but the price offered may not be the best available in the market—since the service provider is taking the other side of the transaction, a conflict of interest may occur.
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Investment management firms

Investment management firms (who typically manage large accounts on behalf of customers such as pension funds and endowments) use the foreign exchange market to facilitate transactions in foreign securities. For example, an investment manager bearing an international equity portfolio needs to purchase and sell several pairs of foreign currencies to pay for foreign securities purchases.Some investment management firms also have more speculative specialist currency overlay operations, which manage clients' currency exposures with the aim of generating profits as well as limiting risk. Whilst the number of this type of specialist firms is quite small, many have a large value of assets under management (AUM), and hence can generate large trades.
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Hedge funds as speculators

About 70% to 90% of the foreign exchange transactions are speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end rather, they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency. Hedge funds have gained a reputation for aggressive currency speculation since 1996. They control billions of dollars of equity and may borrow billions more, and thus may overwhelm intervention by central banks to support almost any currency, if the economic fundamentals are in the hedge funds' favor.
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Central banks


National central banks play an important role in the foreign exchange markets. They try to control the money supply, inflation, and/or interest rates and often have official or unofficial target rates for their currencies. They can use their often substantial foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the market. Milton Friedman argued that the best stabilization strategy would be for central banks to buy when the exchange rate is too low, and to sell when the rate is too high—that is, to trade for a profit based on their more precise information. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of central bank 8220stabilizing speculation8221 is doubtful because central banks do not go bankrupt if they make large losses, like other traders would, and there is no convincing evidence that they do make a profit trading.
The mere expectation or rumor of central bank intervention might be enough to stabilize a currency, but aggressive intervention might be used several times each year in countries with a dirty float currency regime. Central banks do not always achieve their objectives. The combined resources of the market can easily overwhelm any central bank. Several scenarios of this nature were seen in the 1992–93 ERM collapse, and in more recent times in Southeast Asia.
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